Written by Mark Weisleder or the Toronto Star
As Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney tries to talk Canadians out of piling up too much debt, the comments have led to a lot of speculation about whether Canada faces a U.S.- style housing meltdown.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The factors that led to the US housing crisis were unique to their market. Next year should see strong growth in prices and sales, especially in the GTA, and I plan to write about why in the next few weeks.
The differences between the U.S. and Canada can be summarized as:
American politicians encouraged banks to make it easy for consumers to buy a home. The banks ended up lending to people who never would have legitimately qualified for a mortgage. Basically, if you had a pulse, you got approved.
Government programs allowed buyers to get a down payment from the government as well. In other words, many bought properties with none of their own money.
These mortgages came with very low interest payments, but after a few years, the home owner had to make a large lump sum payment. Many couldn’t afford the payment and so these mortgages were called ‘sub-prime.’
The U.S. lets homeowners deduct interest paid on their home mortgage from their income tax. Thus, whatever was paid by the borrower to carry the mortgage was taken as a deduction on their income tax returns. You can’t do that here.
Many states in the U.S. have non-recourse mortgages. This means that if you default on a mortgage loan, the only remedy for the bank is to take back the property. They cannot sue you for any loss suffered. This also doesn’t apply in any province except Alberta?
When you put this together, there was no incentive for home owners to pay down the mortgage principal. They just kept remortgaging and taking out the equity. Wall Street figured out a way to sell these sub-prime mortgages by convincing others about the great profits they would make on these balloon payments. Unfortunately, none of these balloon payments were made and most of these loans were worthless. Currently, besides the hundreds of thousands of properties still in foreclosure in the US, it is estimated that almost 20 per cent of the remaining mortgage loans are “under water,” meaning that the homes are worth less than what is owing on the mortgage debt.
While it may be true that Canadian household debt may be increasing, but with less than 1 per cent of mortgages under water, this is not the basis for any kind of housing collapse.
Here are the main differences between the Canadian and U.S. markets:
Banks have made sure over the last few years that even if you qualified for a 1-year mortgage rate of 2.5 per cent, you had to have the ability to pay the 5-year rate, which was closer to 5.5 per cent, in order to qualify for the mortgage. Thus, even if interest rates rise, as the Governor has warned, most Canadians will still be able to absorb the increased payments.
Banks have been much stricter in requiring evidence of real down payments before lending any money. There are no free down payment programs in effect in Canada.
In Canada, because you cannot deduct interest from your home mortgage on your tax return, you are encouraged to pay down the principal on your mortgage. American lawmakers want to go the Canadian way and remove the home mortgage interest deduction from the US tax code, but can’t for now as this may cause millions more to lose their homes.
Most Canadian mortgages, except in Alberta, are recourse mortgages, so if you don’t pay, you can be sued by the lender for any shortfall.
Mortgage insurance companies are working proactively with borrowers who may be having difficulty making their mortgage payments to find solutions before the mortgage goes into long term default.
The Governor of the Bank of Canada has to walk a very fine line, looking at inflation on one side, interest rates and he overall economy. There is a reason that the Canadian economy is now the envy of most of the G20 countries. It is also a reason for continued optimism for 2011. Enjoy the ride.
Real estate lawyer Mark Weisleder is the author of Put the Pen Down! What homebuyers and sellers need to know before signing on the dotted line.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Cambridge: The little town that grew
Taken from yourhome.ca December 3, 2010
Pat Brennan
SPECIAL TO THE STAR
Deep in space, a navigation satellite is peering down on earth and scratching its head in confusion.
Its sophisticated instruments indicate it’s looking at its birthplace, a factory in Cambridge, Ont. But its powerful lens feels it is admiring a charming little town in Germany, maybe France, possibly England.
It shouldn’t feel bad. Humans down on the ground get that same sense when they arrive in Galt, the small limestone city that forms the heart of the expanded, regional city of Cambridge, 100 kilometres west of Toronto.
The city core has the look and feel of a small European city and that image is going to be enhanced over the next couple of years with a variety of commercial firms proposing downtown rehabilitation projects.
But it’s not just businesses that are finding Cambridge attractive. Homebuyers are also making their way west along the 401 corridor from the GTA. House prices are certainly a major draw, but Cambridge’s charm also has allure.
House prices in Cambridge are on average 15 per cent below prices in nearby Guelph, says Bob Peace, president of Cambridge Real Estate Board. “Most of the new homes being purchased in the northeast quadrant of Cambridge are bought by people who work in Toronto and Mississauga. A lot of them drive to Milton and jump on the GO Train.
“Next year, there’ll be regular GO service to Guelph and Kitchener and I imagine that is going to further stimulate new homes sales in our area,” said Peace.
For the greater Kitchener area, which includes Cambridge, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. measured a 68.3 per cent increase in total housing starts in the first quarter of 2010, compared to the first quarter in 2009.
During that same period, average prices on MLS re-sale homes increased 13.3 per cent to $284,475.
New home construction in Hespeler — one of three communities amalgamated in 1973 to create Cambridge — triggered the construction of two new interchanges with Highway 401 at Franklin Blvd. and Townline Rd.
Mattamy Homes advertised its Mill Pond project in Hespeler as “the gentle side of Cambridge.”
Hespeler has maintained its original village atmosphere, while Hespeler Rd (Highway 24), leading into central Cambridge from Highway 401, has become the commercial big box corridor for the region.
Galt and Preston were the other two communities married to Hespeler and although they are now officially Cambridge, their names will live on in a 173-year-old flour mill sitting on the edge of the Grand River, which flows majestically through the downtown core.
Leanne Ciancone, of the Landmark Group of Companies, will be applying their names to various dining rooms in her $6 million refurbishing of the old mill into an upscale restaurant. The Hespeler Room, Preston Room and Galt Room together will accommodate up to 500 diners in the new Cambridge Mill Restaurant scheduled to open in April 2011.
Ciancone and her brothers Aaron and James are the newest generation of the family to get into the restaurant business. Their grandfather, and subsequently their father, operated major restaurants in the Golden Horseshoe. They own the Ancaster Old Mill on Hamilton Mountain and Spencer’s at the Waterfront in Burlington.
Because she’ll be operating the Cambridge Mill restaurant, Ciancone is moving from Burlington to the Waterscape, a new condominium being erected beside the restaurant on the east bank of the Grand.
She’ll be one of the few out-of-towners to purchase a suite there. Developer Paul de Haas says most of his buyers are coming from the large family homes across the river in Galt’s prestigious Victoria Park neighbourhood.
“They didn’t want to leave downtown Galt when they were ready to move out of their large homes, but until we brought The Waterscape to market, there was nowhere in the city for those people to find a new, spacious condominium suite,” says de Haas.
The Waterscape site was for more than half a century one of the most attractive riverfront parcels of land in Waterloo Region, but developers shied away from it due to excessive de-contamination costs.
It was the site of a coal oil production plant early in the last century and had left a nasty heritage. De Haas specializes in converting old industrial sites in city cores to upscale residential projects. He won tax incentives from the province and Cambridge to offset the heavy costs of cleaning the site.
Greg McDonnell, a retired Kitchener firefighter, lives in a large home across the river from downtown Galt and is hoping to move into his Waterscape suite in time for Christmas.
From the high vantage point of his future home, he can watch traffic on the river plus traffic rumbling across the high trestle carrying the main CNR line over the valley.
Watching trains and ships is more than a hobby for this firefighter. He has more than a dozen photography books published about trains, ships and western grain silos.
“I’ve been up to my unit and when I look through the lens of my camera at Galt’s downtown, it’s like looking at the centre of a small European city,” said McDonnell.
Drayton Entertainment, which operates six theatres for the performing arts in southwestern Ontario, is getting a new theatre and company headquarters in downtown Galt.
With $6 million each from Ottawa, Queen’s Park and the city, the $18 million theatre will be owned by the city and Drayton Entertainment will lease the office and the theatre support facilities, which includes rehearsal halls, prop and set building, wardrobe creations, etc.
Performances are expected to bring 75,000 people downtown each year.
The University of Waterloo’s school of architecture moved into a former riverfront textile mill in the city’s core in 2004. Mayor Doug Craig says that creative presence has had a significant influence on the resurgence of restoration projects and new developments downtown.
Cambridge is home to many high-tech research and manufacturing firms, plus a close neighbour to three of Canada’s leading universities — Guelph, Waterloo and Wilfred Laurier.
The satellite looking down at Cambridge is one of dozens in space that were designed and built by Com Dev International, a Cambridge high-tech firm. Stephen Hawking, one of the world’s best known scientists, signed on this summer to be a professor and researcher at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics.
A new rapid transit system is proposed for Waterloo Region to tie Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge together, but Greg Durocher, president of the Cambridge Chamber of Commerce, believes it’s short-sighted to spend $800 million to $1 billion for a regional rapid-transit system.
“I know what their researching at Com Dev and someday we are going to come out our front door, get in our private vehicle, push a button and then sit back to drink coffee and read the Star on a screen in the dash, while a computer talking to a satellite directs our car hands-free to our job or shopping or church — whereever we’ve asked it to go.
“I might not live to see it, but my daughter will,” said Durrocher.
MAIN STREET
David Gibson has developed commercial and residential projects all over North America, but rarely has he seen a more attractive small town core than in downtown Galt.
That’s why he has spent nearly $4 million acquiring old buildings on Main St. in Galt’s core, which he is now renovating to create a residential/commercial village within the core.
The seven buildings are on both sides of Main Street in the same block between Water St. and Ainsley St.
“We are expecting the municipality to make the streetscape more pedestrian friendly along that block and we’re gutting the buildings down to their bare walls to create fresh, new retail outlets and new residences that will be mostly rental,” said Gibson.
“We are working closely with the city’s heritage committee to maintain the character of the neighbourhood. We love the stone structures along Main St. They create much of the charm of the area and we’re hoping the city will be finishing the street surfaces in brick or cobblestone.”
In the Perimeter plan, sidewalks will be widened, trees planted and benches installed. “We want to make it an attractive people friendly place,” said Gibson. He said two large municipal parking lots behind the buildings fronting on to Main is another of the neighbourhood’s attractive features to the developer.
He expects other downtown property owners will be stimulated by his renovations to upgrade their own properties.
Gibson was chairman and one of the founding partners of First Gulf Developments, a firm that specializes in creating office, commercial and industrial properties. First Gulf is a spin off from homebuilder Great Gulf Homes, which became the Great Gulf Group of Companies.
Most notable among Great Gulf’s residential projects are 1 Bloor St. and Parkside, a $200 million waterfront condo on Queen’s Quay at Sherbourne St.
Gibson said he sold his shares in First Gulf late last year to launch Perimeter Group and concentrate on redeveloping small commercial/residential properties in the central core of Ontario towns and cities.
Pat Brennan
SPECIAL TO THE STAR
Deep in space, a navigation satellite is peering down on earth and scratching its head in confusion.
Its sophisticated instruments indicate it’s looking at its birthplace, a factory in Cambridge, Ont. But its powerful lens feels it is admiring a charming little town in Germany, maybe France, possibly England.
It shouldn’t feel bad. Humans down on the ground get that same sense when they arrive in Galt, the small limestone city that forms the heart of the expanded, regional city of Cambridge, 100 kilometres west of Toronto.
The city core has the look and feel of a small European city and that image is going to be enhanced over the next couple of years with a variety of commercial firms proposing downtown rehabilitation projects.
But it’s not just businesses that are finding Cambridge attractive. Homebuyers are also making their way west along the 401 corridor from the GTA. House prices are certainly a major draw, but Cambridge’s charm also has allure.
House prices in Cambridge are on average 15 per cent below prices in nearby Guelph, says Bob Peace, president of Cambridge Real Estate Board. “Most of the new homes being purchased in the northeast quadrant of Cambridge are bought by people who work in Toronto and Mississauga. A lot of them drive to Milton and jump on the GO Train.
“Next year, there’ll be regular GO service to Guelph and Kitchener and I imagine that is going to further stimulate new homes sales in our area,” said Peace.
For the greater Kitchener area, which includes Cambridge, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. measured a 68.3 per cent increase in total housing starts in the first quarter of 2010, compared to the first quarter in 2009.
During that same period, average prices on MLS re-sale homes increased 13.3 per cent to $284,475.
New home construction in Hespeler — one of three communities amalgamated in 1973 to create Cambridge — triggered the construction of two new interchanges with Highway 401 at Franklin Blvd. and Townline Rd.
Mattamy Homes advertised its Mill Pond project in Hespeler as “the gentle side of Cambridge.”
Hespeler has maintained its original village atmosphere, while Hespeler Rd (Highway 24), leading into central Cambridge from Highway 401, has become the commercial big box corridor for the region.
Galt and Preston were the other two communities married to Hespeler and although they are now officially Cambridge, their names will live on in a 173-year-old flour mill sitting on the edge of the Grand River, which flows majestically through the downtown core.
Leanne Ciancone, of the Landmark Group of Companies, will be applying their names to various dining rooms in her $6 million refurbishing of the old mill into an upscale restaurant. The Hespeler Room, Preston Room and Galt Room together will accommodate up to 500 diners in the new Cambridge Mill Restaurant scheduled to open in April 2011.
Ciancone and her brothers Aaron and James are the newest generation of the family to get into the restaurant business. Their grandfather, and subsequently their father, operated major restaurants in the Golden Horseshoe. They own the Ancaster Old Mill on Hamilton Mountain and Spencer’s at the Waterfront in Burlington.
Because she’ll be operating the Cambridge Mill restaurant, Ciancone is moving from Burlington to the Waterscape, a new condominium being erected beside the restaurant on the east bank of the Grand.
She’ll be one of the few out-of-towners to purchase a suite there. Developer Paul de Haas says most of his buyers are coming from the large family homes across the river in Galt’s prestigious Victoria Park neighbourhood.
“They didn’t want to leave downtown Galt when they were ready to move out of their large homes, but until we brought The Waterscape to market, there was nowhere in the city for those people to find a new, spacious condominium suite,” says de Haas.
The Waterscape site was for more than half a century one of the most attractive riverfront parcels of land in Waterloo Region, but developers shied away from it due to excessive de-contamination costs.
It was the site of a coal oil production plant early in the last century and had left a nasty heritage. De Haas specializes in converting old industrial sites in city cores to upscale residential projects. He won tax incentives from the province and Cambridge to offset the heavy costs of cleaning the site.
Greg McDonnell, a retired Kitchener firefighter, lives in a large home across the river from downtown Galt and is hoping to move into his Waterscape suite in time for Christmas.
From the high vantage point of his future home, he can watch traffic on the river plus traffic rumbling across the high trestle carrying the main CNR line over the valley.
Watching trains and ships is more than a hobby for this firefighter. He has more than a dozen photography books published about trains, ships and western grain silos.
“I’ve been up to my unit and when I look through the lens of my camera at Galt’s downtown, it’s like looking at the centre of a small European city,” said McDonnell.
Drayton Entertainment, which operates six theatres for the performing arts in southwestern Ontario, is getting a new theatre and company headquarters in downtown Galt.
With $6 million each from Ottawa, Queen’s Park and the city, the $18 million theatre will be owned by the city and Drayton Entertainment will lease the office and the theatre support facilities, which includes rehearsal halls, prop and set building, wardrobe creations, etc.
Performances are expected to bring 75,000 people downtown each year.
The University of Waterloo’s school of architecture moved into a former riverfront textile mill in the city’s core in 2004. Mayor Doug Craig says that creative presence has had a significant influence on the resurgence of restoration projects and new developments downtown.
Cambridge is home to many high-tech research and manufacturing firms, plus a close neighbour to three of Canada’s leading universities — Guelph, Waterloo and Wilfred Laurier.
The satellite looking down at Cambridge is one of dozens in space that were designed and built by Com Dev International, a Cambridge high-tech firm. Stephen Hawking, one of the world’s best known scientists, signed on this summer to be a professor and researcher at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics.
A new rapid transit system is proposed for Waterloo Region to tie Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge together, but Greg Durocher, president of the Cambridge Chamber of Commerce, believes it’s short-sighted to spend $800 million to $1 billion for a regional rapid-transit system.
“I know what their researching at Com Dev and someday we are going to come out our front door, get in our private vehicle, push a button and then sit back to drink coffee and read the Star on a screen in the dash, while a computer talking to a satellite directs our car hands-free to our job or shopping or church — whereever we’ve asked it to go.
“I might not live to see it, but my daughter will,” said Durrocher.
MAIN STREET
David Gibson has developed commercial and residential projects all over North America, but rarely has he seen a more attractive small town core than in downtown Galt.
That’s why he has spent nearly $4 million acquiring old buildings on Main St. in Galt’s core, which he is now renovating to create a residential/commercial village within the core.
The seven buildings are on both sides of Main Street in the same block between Water St. and Ainsley St.
“We are expecting the municipality to make the streetscape more pedestrian friendly along that block and we’re gutting the buildings down to their bare walls to create fresh, new retail outlets and new residences that will be mostly rental,” said Gibson.
“We are working closely with the city’s heritage committee to maintain the character of the neighbourhood. We love the stone structures along Main St. They create much of the charm of the area and we’re hoping the city will be finishing the street surfaces in brick or cobblestone.”
In the Perimeter plan, sidewalks will be widened, trees planted and benches installed. “We want to make it an attractive people friendly place,” said Gibson. He said two large municipal parking lots behind the buildings fronting on to Main is another of the neighbourhood’s attractive features to the developer.
He expects other downtown property owners will be stimulated by his renovations to upgrade their own properties.
Gibson was chairman and one of the founding partners of First Gulf Developments, a firm that specializes in creating office, commercial and industrial properties. First Gulf is a spin off from homebuilder Great Gulf Homes, which became the Great Gulf Group of Companies.
Most notable among Great Gulf’s residential projects are 1 Bloor St. and Parkside, a $200 million waterfront condo on Queen’s Quay at Sherbourne St.
Gibson said he sold his shares in First Gulf late last year to launch Perimeter Group and concentrate on redeveloping small commercial/residential properties in the central core of Ontario towns and cities.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Planning ahead key to getting top value when selling
Written by: KATE ROBERTSON
Special to Globe and Mail Update
Published
As with every exit strategy, experts advise owners to plan early if they think they will eventually sell their business.
According to the business monitor survey published for the first quarter of this year by the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants and Royal Bank of Canada, the top two challenges business owners believe they will face in selling are getting the right value for their company and finding the right successor.
Lawrence Wilder, a corporate lawyer with Cassels Brock, said that companies can get a start long before the actual sale date by staying on top of financial reporting and other bits of housekeeping.
“You certainly will get a better value if you have your ducks in a row than if you don't,” Mr. Wilder said.
Business owners who already have comprehensive financial and tax reports completed by third-party advisers will have a leg up on the due diligence process that eventually comes in an acquisition.
Once a business owner has decided to sell, he or she will have to hire an auditor, legal counsel, a business valuator (who does not take a commission on a sale) and, sometimes, a mergers and acquisition adviser (who does take a commission).
The team completes a company review, Mr. Wilder said. Everything from sales projections to employee and intellectual property agreements inform both the sales memorandum document that is used to market the company and the valuation of the business.
Some work with a business broker to market the company, but many owners want to maintain confidentiality during the process. Often, they rely on their adviser's networks to look for potential buyers.
“Most accounting firms have divisions that will assist in finding a buyer,” Mr. Wilder said. “They'll quietly market it around the street, and, very often, they won't name the company. They'll just say it has approximately x…revenues, and to please contact the accounting firm to get the name of the person who's selling.”
Interested buyers can then begin to negotiate the terms of the sale agreement to see if a deal can be made.
Even though the economy will have an effect on M&A activity, there are key factors every business owner should consider to maximize value when they sell, said Farley Cohen, a certified business valuator.
For one, it's important to have developed a business plan that goes beyond the owner's final day. said Mr. Cohen, chair of the board of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Business Valuators and a principal with Cohen, Hamilton, Steger & Co.
“The key thing to keep in mind is that value is prospective,” Mr. Cohen said. “It's looking into the future.”
Along with having comprehensive tax returns and financial statements that put the company in good standing, business owners must have answers for questions about how the company will continue to grow.
What assets and liabilities does the company have today and what are its prospects for the future? What is the value of the real estate and the equipment? How are sales expected to grow? Are there any unusual expenditures coming up?
Secondly, a business valuator will measure the internal risks of the company, which include how it is structured, how it is operated and by whom.
Whether or not a management team has a chief financial officer and a vice-president of sales and marketing will affect how much value he or she can ascribe to the company.
The valuator will also look at how competitive a business's pricing is, the level of customer satisfaction and a company's awareness of its competitors.
“You have to know what's going on in your industry and act accordingly,” Mr. Cohen said. “If there's new machinery that everybody's using, you should have that. I don't want to buy last year's way of doing things. I want to buy this year's – or, even better, next year's.”
Lastly, Mr. Cohen will look at the external risks to the business, which are largely outside of most owners’ control. But any owner would be wise to ask himself or herself the same questions a business valuator will be asking.
“It's sort of like a house,” Mr. Cohen said. “When you're selling your house, you'll look to find out what your neighbour sold their house for.”
Special to The Globe and Mail
Monday, November 29, 2010
Ethnic Chinese number superstition impacts housing prices
UBC researchers find values fluctuate between $8,000 and $10,000 based on $400,000 home relative to street address
By Scott Simpson
Taken from the Vancouver Sun November 27, 2010
The address of your home can improve or depress the price you can sell it for in some Metro Vancouver neighbourhoods, new research from the University of British Columbia suggests.
In what's described as the "emerging field of research on the economics of number beliefs," Nicole Fortin of UBC's economics department and coresearchers are preparing to release a study showing that Chinese number preferences can push up or down the price of certain homes in neighbourhoods that have an above-average number of ethnic Chinese residents.
Fortin, honours economics student Jeff Huang and PhD candidate Andrew Hill, looked at more than 115,000 residential real estate sales in the Greater Vancouver region over five years.
In neighbourhoods where the percentage of ethnic Chinese residents exceeds the regional average of 18 per cent, the study found that houses with addresses ending in the lucky number eight sold at a 2.5 per cent premium, while those ending in the unlucky number four sold at a discount of 2.2 per cent," UBC reported Friday in a news release. "
This translates into a premium or discount of between $8,000 and $10,000, based on a $400,000 average price of a single-family house in Greater Vancouver during the 2000-2005 sample period."
Huang, who immigrated to Canada from Taiwan in 2004, suggested the topic, looking to put Chinese number beliefs to a scientific test.
The numbers' positive and negative associations, which are rooted in feng shui, the ancient Chinese system of esthetics, stem from how they are pronounced, Huang says in the release. "In many Chinese dialects, including Mandarin and Cantonese, four is a homonym for the word death and eight is phonetically similar to the word for prosperity or wealth.
"Our study shows that Chinese number preferences affect real estate prices in neighbourhoods where the census shows higher percentages of ethnic Chinese residents," Fortin, who will present the study at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in Denver, Colo., in January, said in the release.
The research team used data from the Canadian Census and the B.C. Assessment Authority, and Fortin reports finding the phenomenon present in 43 per cent of Metro Vancouver's 361 census districts, including many in Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby and Coquitlam -neighbourhoods where people who self-identified as "ethnic Chinese" on the census exceeded 18 per cent of the population.
Huang says the study does not suggest everyone of Chinese heritage holds these preferences, or acts on them. "Obviously, there will be differences from person to person. For example, these beliefs may be stronger for recent immigrants than people whose families have lived in North American for generations."
Huang adds: "Our study suggests these numbers are significant to enough people in these areas that there is a corresponding impact on real estate prices."
The research team believes the findings will apply to other North American regions with significant Chinese communities, including New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Honolulu, Seattle, New Jersey and Toronto.
Fortin suggests that real estate agents, buyers and sellers could be at a competitive disadvantage if they are unaware of the phenomenon.
"This shows that the address of your house can be more of a selling feature in some markets," she said. Fortin added that some real estate companies already market houses ending with the number eight or 88 -the "double joy" number -to prospective buyers from China.
Fortin, honours economics student Jeff Huang and PhD candidate Andrew Hill, looked at more than 115,000 residential real estate sales in the Greater Vancouver region over five years.
In neighbourhoods where the percentage of ethnic Chinese residents exceeds the regional average of 18 per cent, the study found that houses with addresses ending in the lucky number eight sold at a 2.5 per cent premium, while those ending in the unlucky number four sold at a discount of 2.2 per cent," UBC reported Friday in a news release. "
This translates into a premium or discount of between $8,000 and $10,000, based on a $400,000 average price of a single-family house in Greater Vancouver during the 2000-2005 sample period."
Huang, who immigrated to Canada from Taiwan in 2004, suggested the topic, looking to put Chinese number beliefs to a scientific test.
The numbers' positive and negative associations, which are rooted in feng shui, the ancient Chinese system of esthetics, stem from how they are pronounced, Huang says in the release. "In many Chinese dialects, including Mandarin and Cantonese, four is a homonym for the word death and eight is phonetically similar to the word for prosperity or wealth.
"Our study shows that Chinese number preferences affect real estate prices in neighbourhoods where the census shows higher percentages of ethnic Chinese residents," Fortin, who will present the study at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in Denver, Colo., in January, said in the release.
The research team used data from the Canadian Census and the B.C. Assessment Authority, and Fortin reports finding the phenomenon present in 43 per cent of Metro Vancouver's 361 census districts, including many in Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby and Coquitlam -neighbourhoods where people who self-identified as "ethnic Chinese" on the census exceeded 18 per cent of the population.
Huang says the study does not suggest everyone of Chinese heritage holds these preferences, or acts on them. "Obviously, there will be differences from person to person. For example, these beliefs may be stronger for recent immigrants than people whose families have lived in North American for generations."
Huang adds: "Our study suggests these numbers are significant to enough people in these areas that there is a corresponding impact on real estate prices."
The research team believes the findings will apply to other North American regions with significant Chinese communities, including New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Honolulu, Seattle, New Jersey and Toronto.
Fortin suggests that real estate agents, buyers and sellers could be at a competitive disadvantage if they are unaware of the phenomenon.
"This shows that the address of your house can be more of a selling feature in some markets," she said. Fortin added that some real estate companies already market houses ending with the number eight or 88 -the "double joy" number -to prospective buyers from China.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Want to learn more about real estate? Don't use TV
By Bill McCarthy, Burnaby Now November 20, 2010
In a world that now has hundreds of television shows, is there anything worth watching that can be of use when thinking about your own real estate and financial needs? The answer is, on balance, no - with some noticeable exceptions.
With so many of you watching these programs, (and on occasion asking my opinion on those shows), here are my thoughts.
First, understand these are hardly reality shows. This genre, be it sports, entertainment, "lifestyle" or now real estate, are heavily edited, scripted and focused on simple sensationalism. These shows are long on sensationalism, short on reality.
Second, most real estate shows are American-based or set in Eastern Canada. Other than being shocked about how absurdly expensive our local real estate is in comparison, keep what you are watching in context.
Third, view most of these shows (if you do at all) as entertainment first - knowledge or insight a very distant second.
This point is key. You simply have to understand that what is increasingly being passed off as information or news is often not. This is also the case in print and on the radio. Our local major newspapers and radio stations are full of paid "infomercials" and "advertorials." Buyer beware - you are being spinned, and not very cleverly.
There are three specialty TV channels I will focus on: Home and Garden TV (HGTV), Slice and the Food Network.
As a gardener, I enjoyed the HGTV more a few years ago when it had far more (and interesting) garden programs. Now it is largely populated by scripted half-hour reality shows focusing on irritating and obnoxious realtors and their "teams." Shows like Big City Broker (featuring Toronto condo specialist Brad Lamb) and The Property Shop (featuring Montreal realtor Tatiana) are simply irritating and focus on these personalities first, a little real estate a distant second. (Although my vote for the most irritating, almost vulgar show about real estate agents is Bravo Channel's Million Dollar Listing, which focuses on three childish California realtors).
My vote for best shows on HGTV are anything with contractor Mike Holmes and Real Renos, featuring Jim Caruk. Both of these shows educate you about good - and extremely bad - residential design and construction. (Keep this in mind when you inspect your own property.)
Other shows, such as My First Home, Dream House and Love it or List It, follow a set format. Watch these and similar shows for entertainment, not applicable market insight. (I note that a new show is about to make its debut.
Entitled Burn my Mortgage, this show will apparently put families through challenges designed to address their overspending habits - and if they look like horses' asses doing it, well so be it. How Canadian).
(Even wonder why there are not similar real estate reality shows centred in Vancouver and featuring our more prominent agents? Could it be that the brokerage community doesn't want this type of focus on our residential prices and what size and value you actually get compared to the rest of the world?)
I have included the Food Network because I greatly enjoy its programs which focus on the business side of the very competitive restaurant industry. Shows like Restaurant Makeover, The Heat, Kitchen Nightmares, Opening Soon, and my favourite, Diners, Dives and Drive-Ins are excellent viewing. They could (and should) be used to teach business and quality control.
There are reasons some businesses fail - and why some succeed. These shows show this - especially the passion and commitment to detail and quality that separate success from failure.
Finally, what show do I recommend the most? It would be financial planner Gail Vaz-Oxlade's Til Debt Do Us Part, seen on the Slice Network.
This is simply the most relevant, blunt and realistic financial show on TV. Timely, topical and right to the point, I would make it recommended viewing in your own home and our high schools.
This is by far the most realistic of all reality shows.
William P. J. McCarthy is president and CEO of W. P. J. McCarthy & Co. Ltd., a Burnaby firm specializing in property management and development.
First, understand these are hardly reality shows. This genre, be it sports, entertainment, "lifestyle" or now real estate, are heavily edited, scripted and focused on simple sensationalism. These shows are long on sensationalism, short on reality.
Second, most real estate shows are American-based or set in Eastern Canada. Other than being shocked about how absurdly expensive our local real estate is in comparison, keep what you are watching in context.
Third, view most of these shows (if you do at all) as entertainment first - knowledge or insight a very distant second.
This point is key. You simply have to understand that what is increasingly being passed off as information or news is often not. This is also the case in print and on the radio. Our local major newspapers and radio stations are full of paid "infomercials" and "advertorials." Buyer beware - you are being spinned, and not very cleverly.
There are three specialty TV channels I will focus on: Home and Garden TV (HGTV), Slice and the Food Network.
As a gardener, I enjoyed the HGTV more a few years ago when it had far more (and interesting) garden programs. Now it is largely populated by scripted half-hour reality shows focusing on irritating and obnoxious realtors and their "teams." Shows like Big City Broker (featuring Toronto condo specialist Brad Lamb) and The Property Shop (featuring Montreal realtor Tatiana) are simply irritating and focus on these personalities first, a little real estate a distant second. (Although my vote for the most irritating, almost vulgar show about real estate agents is Bravo Channel's Million Dollar Listing, which focuses on three childish California realtors).
My vote for best shows on HGTV are anything with contractor Mike Holmes and Real Renos, featuring Jim Caruk. Both of these shows educate you about good - and extremely bad - residential design and construction. (Keep this in mind when you inspect your own property.)
Other shows, such as My First Home, Dream House and Love it or List It, follow a set format. Watch these and similar shows for entertainment, not applicable market insight. (I note that a new show is about to make its debut.
Entitled Burn my Mortgage, this show will apparently put families through challenges designed to address their overspending habits - and if they look like horses' asses doing it, well so be it. How Canadian).
(Even wonder why there are not similar real estate reality shows centred in Vancouver and featuring our more prominent agents? Could it be that the brokerage community doesn't want this type of focus on our residential prices and what size and value you actually get compared to the rest of the world?)
I have included the Food Network because I greatly enjoy its programs which focus on the business side of the very competitive restaurant industry. Shows like Restaurant Makeover, The Heat, Kitchen Nightmares, Opening Soon, and my favourite, Diners, Dives and Drive-Ins are excellent viewing. They could (and should) be used to teach business and quality control.
There are reasons some businesses fail - and why some succeed. These shows show this - especially the passion and commitment to detail and quality that separate success from failure.
Finally, what show do I recommend the most? It would be financial planner Gail Vaz-Oxlade's Til Debt Do Us Part, seen on the Slice Network.
This is simply the most relevant, blunt and realistic financial show on TV. Timely, topical and right to the point, I would make it recommended viewing in your own home and our high schools.
This is by far the most realistic of all reality shows.
William P. J. McCarthy is president and CEO of W. P. J. McCarthy & Co. Ltd., a Burnaby firm specializing in property management and development.
Monday, November 15, 2010
New house prices higher than expected in September
OTTAWA — Prices for new houses rose more than expected in September, led by gains in Montreal and Calgary, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday.
The federal agency's New Housing Price Index gained 0.2 per cent during the month, following 0.1 per cent increase in August. Most economists had expected house prices to rise 0.1 per cent in September.
Prices in Montreal were up 1.6 per cent, while Calgary saw a 0.3 per cent gain. "The monthly increases in these two metropolitan areas were due in part to builders moving to new areas with higher land development fees," the agency said.
Prices were unchanged in eight of 21 metropolitan areas in September, it said. "In Vancouver and Hamilton, a number of builders reported lower negotiated selling prices in September, while in Victoria, some builders offered discounts to spur sales."
Year over year, new home prices rose 2.7 per cent in September, down from a 2.9 per cent annual increase in August.
The biggest contributors to the year-over-year gain were Toronto and Oshawa, Montreal and Vancouver.
Of the 21 metropolitan areas, four saw housing prices decrease in that 12-month period: Charlottetown; Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ontario; Windsor, Ont.; and Victoria.
Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association said reported home sales appear to be stabilizing but activity this year and next is still expected to be weak.
The Ottawa-based group forecast sales to reach 442,200 units in 2010, down 4.9 per cent on an annual basis. Activity will drop nine per cent to 402,500 units in 2011 due to "lacklustre economic and job growth, muted consumer confidence, and the resumption of interest rate increases are expected in 2011," CREA said.
Meanwhile, CREA said the average home price is forecast to rise 3.1 per cent in 2010 to $330,200, with increases expected in all provinces. In 2011, however, the average price is expected to fall 1.3 per cent to $326,000.
On Monday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said the annualized rate of housing starts fell 9.2 per cent in October to 167,900 units. That number was revised down from the previously reported 186,400.
"We continue to expect to see slowing in the Canadian housing market over the next six months, at least," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, said in a report Tuesday.
In another report issued Tuesday, TD Economics foreign exchange strategists Shaun Osborne and Jacqui Douglas said multi-family dwellings will fare worse than single-family units.
"For single-unit housing we expect to see some stabilization soon, probably around the 50-60K area," Osborne and Douglas write. "But multi-unit housing was rising for longer, and will likely show some further vulnerability in the coming quarters. TD's forecast is for overall weakness in homebuilding through mid-2011, before a pickup in activity in 2012."
New Housing Price Indexes for September
(% change m/m y/y):
Canada 0.2 2.7
St. John's 0.0 4.9
Charlottetown 0.0 -2.2
Halifax 0.0 0.7
Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, N.B. 0.1 2.0
Quebec 0.0 2.9
Montreal 1.6 4.5
Ottawa-Gatineau 0.1 3.6
Toronto and Oshawa 0.0 3.0
Hamilton -0.1 2.3
St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 0.1 1.4
London, Ont. 0.1 2.3
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont. 0.1 1.6
Windsor, Ont. 0.1 -0.5
Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont. 0.1 -1.2
Winnipeg 0.1 5.2
Regina 0.0 6.1
Saskatoon 0.0 3.3
Calgary 0.3 2.1
Edmonton 0.0 -0.7
Vancouver -0.4 2.5
Victoria -0.4 -0.6
Source: Statistics Canada
The federal agency's New Housing Price Index gained 0.2 per cent during the month, following 0.1 per cent increase in August. Most economists had expected house prices to rise 0.1 per cent in September.
Prices in Montreal were up 1.6 per cent, while Calgary saw a 0.3 per cent gain. "The monthly increases in these two metropolitan areas were due in part to builders moving to new areas with higher land development fees," the agency said.
Prices were unchanged in eight of 21 metropolitan areas in September, it said. "In Vancouver and Hamilton, a number of builders reported lower negotiated selling prices in September, while in Victoria, some builders offered discounts to spur sales."
Year over year, new home prices rose 2.7 per cent in September, down from a 2.9 per cent annual increase in August.
The biggest contributors to the year-over-year gain were Toronto and Oshawa, Montreal and Vancouver.
Of the 21 metropolitan areas, four saw housing prices decrease in that 12-month period: Charlottetown; Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ontario; Windsor, Ont.; and Victoria.
Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association said reported home sales appear to be stabilizing but activity this year and next is still expected to be weak.
The Ottawa-based group forecast sales to reach 442,200 units in 2010, down 4.9 per cent on an annual basis. Activity will drop nine per cent to 402,500 units in 2011 due to "lacklustre economic and job growth, muted consumer confidence, and the resumption of interest rate increases are expected in 2011," CREA said.
Meanwhile, CREA said the average home price is forecast to rise 3.1 per cent in 2010 to $330,200, with increases expected in all provinces. In 2011, however, the average price is expected to fall 1.3 per cent to $326,000.
On Monday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said the annualized rate of housing starts fell 9.2 per cent in October to 167,900 units. That number was revised down from the previously reported 186,400.
"We continue to expect to see slowing in the Canadian housing market over the next six months, at least," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, said in a report Tuesday.
In another report issued Tuesday, TD Economics foreign exchange strategists Shaun Osborne and Jacqui Douglas said multi-family dwellings will fare worse than single-family units.
"For single-unit housing we expect to see some stabilization soon, probably around the 50-60K area," Osborne and Douglas write. "But multi-unit housing was rising for longer, and will likely show some further vulnerability in the coming quarters. TD's forecast is for overall weakness in homebuilding through mid-2011, before a pickup in activity in 2012."
New Housing Price Indexes for September
(% change m/m y/y):
Canada 0.2 2.7
St. John's 0.0 4.9
Charlottetown 0.0 -2.2
Halifax 0.0 0.7
Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, N.B. 0.1 2.0
Quebec 0.0 2.9
Montreal 1.6 4.5
Ottawa-Gatineau 0.1 3.6
Toronto and Oshawa 0.0 3.0
Hamilton -0.1 2.3
St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 0.1 1.4
London, Ont. 0.1 2.3
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont. 0.1 1.6
Windsor, Ont. 0.1 -0.5
Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont. 0.1 -1.2
Winnipeg 0.1 5.2
Regina 0.0 6.1
Saskatoon 0.0 3.3
Calgary 0.3 2.1
Edmonton 0.0 -0.7
Vancouver -0.4 2.5
Victoria -0.4 -0.6
Source: Statistics Canada
Friday, November 12, 2010
Go Green Challenge set for resale homes
By Marty Hope, Calgary Herald October 30, 2010
The Calgary Real Estate Board is going green. Called the first of its kind in Alberta -- and among the first in Canada -- the board has announced the launch of its Go Green Challenge, a program encouraging Calgarians to be aware of their home's environmental footprint.
With environmental impact being a priority for many homebuyers -- and houses being a major consumer of energy -- the 12-month pilot project involves adding the EnerGuide rating system to information sheets for homes listed for sale in the Calgary area.
EnerGuide identifies a home's energy efficiency.
"We are seeing increasing interest from consumers for green options when it comes to the purchase of a home," says Peter Grobauer, director of member services for the board.
"The idea to go green is all around us. The program demonstrates Calgarians' desire to make more ecoconscious choices and how real estate is evolving based on the interests of home buyers.
"Our hope is that this program will set a new benchmark for the resale housing market in Calgary."
The EnerGuide rating is another way for homeowners to increase the marketability of their homes, he says.
A recent Canadian survey found that three out of four buyers are willing to pay a premium for homes that include environmentally-friendly features -- and 80 per cent cite cost savings on their energy bills as the main motivation.
As more Calgarians have their homes evaluated, consumers will be able to compare EnerGuide ratings along with other common comparable categories such as price, size, location and features.
"Over the last few years, our family has been pursuing a greener lifestyle," says Calgary homeowner Gary Lafortune. "Our realtor first told us about the Go Green Challenge, which is when we began the process of having our home evaluated. We look forward to finishing the process and seeing how well we rate."
Other organizations involved in Go Green Challenge include Climate Change Central, The City of Calgary and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
EnerGuide identifies a home's energy efficiency.
"We are seeing increasing interest from consumers for green options when it comes to the purchase of a home," says Peter Grobauer, director of member services for the board.
"The idea to go green is all around us. The program demonstrates Calgarians' desire to make more ecoconscious choices and how real estate is evolving based on the interests of home buyers.
"Our hope is that this program will set a new benchmark for the resale housing market in Calgary."
The EnerGuide rating is another way for homeowners to increase the marketability of their homes, he says.
A recent Canadian survey found that three out of four buyers are willing to pay a premium for homes that include environmentally-friendly features -- and 80 per cent cite cost savings on their energy bills as the main motivation.
As more Calgarians have their homes evaluated, consumers will be able to compare EnerGuide ratings along with other common comparable categories such as price, size, location and features.
"Over the last few years, our family has been pursuing a greener lifestyle," says Calgary homeowner Gary Lafortune. "Our realtor first told us about the Go Green Challenge, which is when we began the process of having our home evaluated. We look forward to finishing the process and seeing how well we rate."
Other organizations involved in Go Green Challenge include Climate Change Central, The City of Calgary and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
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