Monday, October 25, 2010

Your options in the brave new real estate world

The era of 5% commissions may soon become a distant memory
How would you sell your house today if it was on the market? Would you use a real estate agent or go it alone?
It's no small issue given the typical commission paid by the seller in this country is about $15,000 based on the latest average sale price of an existing home. When you consider most home sales are for principal residences -- and profits are not subject to capital gains taxes--that $15,000 looms larger because it is after-tax money.

The truth is not much has changed since the Canadian Real Estate Association updated its rules in March to make its Multiple Listing Service more flexible, thus allowing agents to simply list a home with the consumer handling all other aspects of a transaction. Those changes are about to be made permanent because of a consent agreement with the Competition Bureau reached last month.
So, what's the difference today? On a practical level, it's hard to argue against listing your home on the MLS, which controls about 90% of transactions in Canada. And while you may pay as little as $109 for that listing, you can almost be sure to pay a commission of 2% to 2.5% to any agent bringing his or her customer to your door.
The option to use one of the dozen or so for-sale-by-owner, or FSBO sites, exists, but you can expect to pay a fee for the service. Plus, you can also assume any customer who buys a house through a FSBO site wants a discount on the market price because they know you are saving commission.
I tried it myself for two weeks before listing my own home on the MLS six years ago. My agent encouraged me. What happened is people who did show interest immediately started to talk about a discount. I was back to an agent and the MLS system.
But maybe there is a compromise solution, where I list on the MLS using an agent who helps me with part of a transaction. After all, there are people who paint their own homes but are reluctant to dabble in electrical wiring.
"Commissions are flexible," says Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada. "There is [a middle ground] and people have to look for it. Many agents will offer a menu of services and that is out there already. Most people will choose to list with an agent who manages an entire transaction."
But now that that choice is part of the game within the confines of the MLS, expect consumers to take advantage of it to save some cash.
"I'd still use an agent. My life is too busy," says Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Bank Financial Group. "But there are going to be people who only want an agent for some things."
Mr. Alexander thinks changes are coming, but couldn't put a timetable on it. He says it is basic economic theory that once you introduce elements of competition to a system, it will start to become more efficient.
Robert McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends, says many realtors will start offering a la carte services such as document preparation, showings, valuation and offer negotiations. He believes high-end real estate will be less affected by the changes and the industry might gear its efforts more to that end of the market.
And, he adds, FSBO sites that charge listing fees could be devastated by a bargain-basement MLS.
"Removal of listing barriers will allow efficient markets to take over. That will put obvious pressure on realtor fees. The era of 5% commissions in Ontario [other jurisdictions vary] could become a distant memory in three to four years," says Mr. McLister.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Foreclosure sales may be driving U.S. housing sector

Michael Babad of CTV

What's driving U.S. home sales?
Analysts were impressed yesterday when the latest reading on the U.S. real estate sector showed pending home sales, or signed sales contracts, climbed 4.3 per cent in August to its best showing since April. U.S. housing was the epicentre of the meltdown, and while coming back the outlook is still for weak growth.
Chief economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates parsed the numbers, and asks today if sales sparked by record foreclosures are driving the increase.
"What caught our eye was the huge 24-per-cent jump in sales in the West - taking pending home sales back to October 2009 levels," Mr. Rosenberg said in a research note. "We also noticed a large 14--per-cent monthly jump (on a seasonally adjusted basis) in resale sales in the West, when the data were released a few weeks ago. It seems that attractively priced foreclosure sales could be driving the recent gains in existing/pending home sales. While encouraging, we don't believe fundamentals are driving the recent gains in home sales and once the flurry of foreclosure sales dies down, we could be in for much weaker numbers."

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Mortgage tightening in works: source

Garry Marr and Paul Vieira, Financial Post · Monday, Oct. 4, 2010
 
The federal government is once again looking at tightening rules in the Canadian mortgage market, says a source close to the situation.
Finance officials are set to meet in Ottawa today with some of the country's leading economists for pre-budget discussions and the subject of whether to tighten housing regulations may come up.
Much of the chatter about changing the mortgage rules seems to stem from comments made by the Bank of Canada governor, who last week warned that consumer borrowing could not continue at its present clip.
"Canadian household balance sheets are becoming increasingly stretched," said Mark Carney, who issued a warning to legislators about taking steps to contain the growth of personal debt. "Historically low policy rates, even if appropriate to achieve the inflation target, create their own risks."
A spokesman for the Finance Minister said toughening existing rules on mortgage eligibility is not on the agenda today when Jim Flaherty meets with economists. The spokesman added the government has already addressed the real estate sector in initiatives introduced this year.
But Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Bank Financial Group, said while he hasn't heard specific talk about changes to mortgage rules, he could see it happening if the market heated up again.
"There is growing concern about the growth of debt. It's now 146% of personal disposable income and the bulk of that is secured debt -- mortgage debt or home-equity lines of credit," said Mr. Alexander, adding the worry is that if long-term rates remain low or go even lower, it could once again ignite the housing market.
He said the easiest way for the government to tighten rules would be to tweak the income-test requirement.
Mr. Alexander said if the government went further and imposed rules that further lower amortizations, or worse, increased the minimum down payment, it could seriously impact the housing market.
A real estate source indicated that as recently as eight weeks ago he had heard Ottawa was considering tightening mortgage rules but the recent slide in the market has it rethinking that. The latest statistics show average prices are now falling, while sales are down about 20% from a year ago.
Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada, said housing activity is slowing, but all indications are the market will be OK and prices relatively stable under the present rules.
"I would be surprised [if there were further changes] because I think you want to keep the housing market rolling," said Mr. Polzler.
The government has to balance the impact any changes in mortgage rules might have on the overall economy. According to July GDP data, the home resale market fell significantly for a third consecutive month, and led to an 8% decrease in the output of real estate agents and brokers. The output of real estate sector is now at about two-thirds of the level recorded at the beginning of 2010 when housing was hot, Statistics Canada data indicates.